IBM has presented a roadmap to the first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer. The IBM Quantum Starling is expected to be operational in 2029 and perform 20,000 times more operations than current quantum computers.
The Starling will be built in a new IBM Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York. The system will be capable of performing 100 million quantum operations with 200 logical qubits. By way of comparison, Starling’s computational state would require more than a quindecillion of the world’s most powerful supercomputers to represent.
IBM is publishing two technical papers demonstrating how error correction is applied using qLDPC codes. This technology reduces the number of physical qubits required for error correction by 90 percent. The second paper describes how information from physical qubits is efficiently decoded and errors are identified and corrected in real time.
Quantum computers must apply error correction to process large workloads without errors. Physical qubits are grouped into logical qubits, which have lower error rates.
Roadmap to 2029
IBM’s quantum roadmap shows four new processors leading up to Starling. Quantum Cockatoo will be released in 2027, connecting two Kookaburra modules via “L-couplers.” This architecture links quantum chips as nodes in a larger system, eliminating the need for large chips.
The IBM Quantum Loon will appear in 2025 and test architecture components for the qLDPC code. Quantum Kookaburra is scheduled to follow in 2026 as the first modular processor capable of storing and processing encoded information.
The developments will ultimately converge in 2029 with Starling. The system will form the basis for IBM Quantum Blue Jay, which is expected to be capable of performing 1 billion quantum operations across 2,000 logical qubits. A large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer with hundreds to thousands of logical qubits can run hundreds of millions to billions of operations, which could bring efficiency to drug discovery, materials discovery, chemistry, and optimization.