A significant restriction on AI development outside the US is looming. The US government is considering restricting exports of 200,000 chips or more, unless the customer in question invests in AI infrastructure in the United States or offers other security guarantees.
According to a document seen by Reuters, US authorities are working on a new framework for the export of AI chips such as those from Nvidia and AMD. The aim is to keep the expansion of AI infrastructure on its own continent or to benefit from investments abroad. In fact, this would be a double win, as the GPUs from US chipmakers also contribute to the US economy.
This move, if implemented, could meet with considerable resistance. The chip industry is complex and globalized, with multiple crucial companies in the supply chain. Without ASML, there would be no TSMC manufacturing in Taiwan, and without exports from that country to the US, there would be no American chips. The US does not seem to be shying away from this: even installations of 1,000 AI chips or less may require a license in the future.
Protecting purchases
From now on, the transaction would not end with the purchase of the AI chips. After purchasing these processors, customer companies would have to continue to provide security guarantees so that the precise distribution of the chips can remain in line. Export controllers would continue to monitor the infrastructure at a later stage.
The plan seems almost designed to undermine the sovereign ambitions of Europe, among others. By seeking to enforce physical control, the interference of foreign authorities is disastrous for the autonomous systems that Europe aspires to. Again, it is not as if the continent can only suffer any restrictions; various steps to implement export restrictions itself are options.
The US Department of Commerce confirmed that it is preparing new rules, but distanced itself from Biden’s approach to accommodate allies. The old approach to promoting “AI diffusion” would have been “disastrous.”
Limits of the new framework
Restrictions have been in place for some countries for some time. China was given permission to purchase Nvidia’s H200 chips in December, but those deliveries are on hold due to national security requirements that China may not be willing to accept. Of course, there are also countries that simply cannot purchase AI chips, such as Russia. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has previously stated that US export controls have failed and are counterproductive because they harm the US chip industry.