Lithography should be central to the Chinese government’s next five-year plan, according to several top executives of chip companies in the country. The new initiative is intended to create an alternative to ASML, the sole supplier in the field of advanced lithography machines. Due to export restrictions however, only domestic development of EUV tools will allow further progress. It’s realistic to expect major steps to be taken within five years, but an ASML equivalent will very likely take longer to materialize.
The Reuters report quotes the top executives as saying that ASML is actually primarily a system integrator, with around 5,000 suppliers and 100,000 components for a single device. The best-known companies in this field are German lens maker Carl Zeiss and fellow German company Trumpf, which specializes in building powerful lasers to etch chip designs onto silicon. This is just a small selection from a mountain of niches that need to master the equivalent of ASML’s equipment.
Zhao Jinrong of Naura Technology Group, Chen Nanxiang of Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp, and Liu Weiping of Empyrean Technology nevertheless argue that China must rise to the challenge. In the trade journal Science and Technology Review, they outline a blueprint for a Chinese version of ASML: a national integrator that centralizes budgets and personnel from different institutions.
Reason enough
The Chinese government can already rest on several successes. Optical systems, the correct placement of wafers on which chips are manufactured, and the crucial EUV light source are each at different advanced stages. Together, they are still far from the sum needed to replace or match ASML’s latest EUV machines. Everything from EDA software to silicon wafers and the necessary gases is still a work in progress.
The Veldhoven-based chip machine manufacturer is not allowed to sell its EUV equipment in China. This has been the case for a decade. However, Chinese chip companies have used the older DUV machines to build more advanced processors than previously seemed possible. The 7-nanometer limit, normally the unit of measurement for the smallest features within chips that can only be achieved with EUV, has already been approached.
Nevertheless, physics is a limitation. Further and further into the light spectrum (and with ever-increasing energy requirements), smaller details in chip design can be realized. High-NA EUV, the light source on which the current state-of-the-art ASML machines rely, is simply a further development of EUV, with Hyper-NA EUV on the horizon.
ASML as a blueprint and target
For now, China’s ambitions are just that: ambitions to build an actual machine. Lithography machines are not even explicitly mentioned in the roadmap. ASML’s lead is also growing, even as Chinese engineers get EUV equipment up and running. Earlier this month, we reported that ASML increased the power output of EUV machines to 1,000 watts, which could increase chip production by 50 percent by 2030. At the same time, ASML is exploring expansion into advanced packaging and larger AI chips.
Half the world, but not half the chips
China’s chip production at the older 28nm node and above represents 33 percent of global capacity and is not subject to restrictions. That is a solid foundation, but not enough for Beijing’s AI ambitions. The first commercial 28nm chips appeared in the West as early as 2010, even before EUV appeared. As mentioned earlier, building an EUV machine requires not only technology, but an entire supply ecosystem of specialized parties. Fundamentally, China should be able to do it, partly through its own developments, espionage of ASML and suppliers, and the simple fact that physics allows it.
In any case, the divide between China and the West in the field of chip production appears to be difficult to reverse. At the end of December, China already required chip manufacturers to purchase at least half of their equipment from domestic suppliers when expanding capacity. The five-year plan presented by Premier Li Qiang on Thursday identifies semiconductors as a core pillar of industry, alongside aviation and biotechnology.