TSMC is set to report its fourth consecutive record quarterly profit on Thursday, with analysts forecasting a net profit of €14.6 billion for Q1 2026, a 50 percent jump year-on-year. Demand for its 3-nanometer chips and advanced packaging continues to outpace capacity, driven by the AI infrastructure boom.
The figure that would mark the company’s highest-ever quarterly net income and its ninth consecutive quarter of profit growth. Analysts compiled by LSEG predict a profit; any result above €13.6 billion would set a new record. The world’s largest advanced chip manufacturer has benefited more than rival foundries from the AI infrastructure boom.
That profit streak has been building for over a year. It tracks pretty closely with the ramping up of AI buildouts. In Q4 2024, TSMC already posted a 58 percent profit increase. First-quarter 2026 revenue, reported last week, rose 35 percent year-on-year, ahead of market forecasts.
Demand outstrips production capacity
Analysts say demand for TSMC’s 3-nanometer technology and advanced packaging solutions continues to outstrip current capacity. That crunch is already affecting the broader chip industry. Earlier this year, Broadcom flagged that TSMC’s production lines are under visible pressure, with delays set to impact supply chains in 2026. Qualcomm is also exploring Samsung as an alternative foundry, partly because TSMC’s 2nm capacity is largely reserved for Apple and Nvidia.
TSMC’s market cap of €1.6 trillion now makes it Asia’s most valuable company. Thursday’s earnings call will also include second-quarter and full-year guidance.
Arizona investments and Japan pivot
TSMC is investing €141 billion in chip factories in the US state of Arizona. The company has also revised its Japan plans, now targeting 3-nanometer production there rather than more mature nodes. TSMC’s US expansion has proceeded under political and regulatory scrutiny, which remains a background factor alongside the strong financial results.
One area of focus on Thursday will be whether TSMC maintains or raises its 2026 capital spending plans. It’ll be a signal of the company’s confidence in long-term AI demand. Potential disruptions to semiconductor materials such as helium and neon from Middle East instability are also being watched.