IDC predicts that Apple will sell fewer than 500,000 Vision Pro headsets this year. Not only that: the future of the $3,500 device is looking bleak, too. It’s another example of a VR product on the road to ruin, an all too familiar sight at this point.
According to IDC, sales of Vision Pro are set to plummet by 75 percent in the current quarter, while sales have already failed to eclipse 100,000 units per quarter. Six months since the Apple headset’s U.S. launch, it also has yet to see a killer app emerge on visionOS, the Vision Pro’s operating system. IDC’s VP, Francisco Jeronimo, told Bloomberg that the upcoming global launch must also be accompanied by enough local content to attract consumers.
Cheaper model?
One possible strategy Apple should employ, according to IDC, is to introduce a cheaper version. An Apple Vision non-Pro, if you will. That could double the bleak-looking sales figures, analysts say. That sounds nice, but requires a far smaller margin per headset and a significant redesign. After all, the Vision Pro features overpriced 11.7 megapixels (per eye) screens as well as heaps of aluminium, stainless steel and high-end finishes. To reach a somewhat attractive price point, there have to be concessions just about everywhere. It contrasts sharply with competitor Meta’s much more popular Quest 3, which builds on the earlier success of the Quest 2. That device stands out not with its utterly unremarkable plastic shell, but with its functionality, software maturity and high tracking accuracy.
Nevertheless, the mass adoption of VR (or spatial computing, or mixed reality, et cetera) is lagging. Price aside, it makes sense that the Vision Pro hasn’t made any headway. It’s bulky, heavy, far too uncomfortable for longer use and unsuitable due to a limited battery, reviewers immediately pointed out. This makes it a very curious product knowing Apple made it, as it usually designs products with a degree of form-over-function (examples include the choice of slimness and lightness versus cooling headroom).
Beyond Apple
Meta, on the other hand, is itself an oddity in the VR world. Boosted by its acquisition of Oculus, it is the only long-standing success story in the modern VR age. Oculus restarted the VR hype funded by crowdfunding between 2012 and 2014, after which many pretenders to the throne also tried their hand at their own headsets. That resulted in low-cost variants like Google Daydream and Samsung GearVR, as well as ambitious projects from HTC, Valve, and a range of suppliers in partnership with Microsoft.
Gradually, some parties found their niche, such as Valve with the Index headset for gaming or the Microsoft HoloLens for some industrial settings. In contrast, only the Oculus/Meta headsets consistently attracted customers in a broad sense. This was aided by the fact the Quest line of products functions as a stand-alone piece of kit, a rarity. After Microsoft finally pulled the plug on its near-abandonware Windows Mixed Reality late last year, that company and its former partners appear to be working with Meta on new hardware. Sony is also pushing forward with an enterprise solution for the “industrial metaverse,” using another term that has perpetually failed to deliver on its promises.
Tip: Metaverse promises much, doesn’t deliver yet; Disney pulls plug on division
Closer communication
Currently, gaming and industrial applications are the only places VR finds interested parties. However, that is emphatically not what Apple, Meta, Sony and Microsoft are ultimately looking for. For example, Microsoft introduced “Mesh” for communication platform Teams, allowing users to speak to each other in 3D immersive spaces. This breaks the usual remoteness in video meetings. At least, that’s the claim.
There is some evidence to back this up. Scientific studies suggest that avatar co-presence in virtual environments contributes to employee social cohesion. In addition, many headsets eliminate visual distractions because they deprive you of the view of reality. So, in theory, VR hardware should be getting ready for broader adoption to enable closer communication with remote colleagues. Given the (post-)Covid surge of hybrid work, there’s every reason to believe VR will benefit.
However, fooling the human brain is tricky. For example, the Vision Pro offers 34 PPD (pixels per degree), quite a distance from the 60 PPD that a human can discern in reality. Also, the viewing angle is still much smaller than the approximately 180 degrees of human vision. Other shortcomings include refresh rate, tracking accuracy and the weight of the device. All of this throws up roadblocks to an eventual breakthrough of VR, which appears to be eternally imminent.
Apple may continue, but it has no need to
When Apple appeared to enter the VR market, expectations were high. After all, the company wowed the phone world with the iPhone in 2007 and sparingly makes forays into new hardware categories. It had (and, for the most part, has) a proven track record. Yet even at its unveiling, the price was patently far too high. The argument that a Vision Pro can replace your life-size television requires you to watch TV alone. For business applications, it is too uncomfortable to replace monitors. In short, there is plenty to dislike about the Vision Pro.
An Apple Vision non-Pro has a chance to be as successful as a Meta Quest, but would probably mean a step down in specifications. Exactly that, in turn, would cause fewer users to find the resolution and other hardware elements sufficiently usable. Thus, the VR market is still stuck in the same catch-22 as before, with or without Apple. Each solution is too expensive, bereft of a business case or simply not good enough. The question now is whether Apple will cancel the Vision project right away. It would presumably mean having to throw out a bunch of R&D for next to no reward, but Apple is by no means dependent on the success of its VR headset. If indeed it does plan to succeed where others have failed or succeeded only in a small niche, it still has a long way to go.
Also read: Meta opens up Horizon OS: Microsoft, Lenovo and Asus build VR hardware