According to the investment bank, as AI becomes “indistinguishable from human-created output,” there will be “potentially large macroeconomic effects.”
The researchers say that generative AI may automate approximately 300 million jobs over the next decade, with a quarter of all work automated in the U.S. and Europe, leading to a profound displacement of workers.
The good news, however, is that new jobs will be created, resulting in a “productivity boom” that may raise economic growth globally. The report suggests that AI could eventually increase annual global GDP by 7%, highlighting the enormous economic potential of generative AI.
Administrative jobs most at risk
The researchers considered Google LLC’s LaMDA, Open AI LP’s image generator DALL-E, and ChatGPT as AI models that could significantly impact the labor market.
The study shows that administrative jobs will be the most disrupted by AI automation, with 46% of tasks in this area predicted to be automated. The legal profession will be the second most affected, with 44% of jobs predicted to be automated.
Other industries greatly affected will be architecture and engineering (37%), business financial operations (35%), community and social services (33%), and management (32%). Meanwhile, jobs in the arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media will have a 27% chance of being replaced by AI.
Researchers say that most jobs will be complemented rather than substituted. Leading automation companies have echoed the sentiment for years. They believe that workers in partially exposed occupations will likely apply their freed-up capacity toward productive activities that increase output, resulting in a “boom in labor productivity” that significantly increases global output.
According to Carl Benedikt Frey, the future-of-work director at the Oxford Martin School at Oxford University, it’s impossible to say what will happen in the future. He said that new technologies in the past have led not always to the outright displacement of humans but to lower wages.
He cited GPS technology as an example, where drivers with navigation skills became less valuable, leading to lower wages rather than fewer drivers. This may happen in other jobs, such as journalism and design, when image generators become the go-to tool for people unprepared to pay for skilled digital designers.
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