All Apple machines used to run on Intel chips. Nowadays, Apple designs its own chips and uses Intel’s rival TSMC to manufacture them. That seems set to change in part: the cheapest M chips are also expected to come out of Intel factories in 2027.
That was the conclusion on Friday of Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities. The prediction had a major impact over the weekend: Intel’s share price climbed 10 percent. Intel is said to be back in the picture at Apple thanks to the upcoming 18A-P process. Tests are said to have yielded positive results, particularly in terms of efficiency. It was precisely this lack of efficiency that led to the split between Intel and Apple half a decade ago; now a (albeit limited) reunion is imminent.
Decision in early 2026
Chip manufacturers such as TSMC and Intel publish so-called PDKs, short for Process Design Kits. This information is crucial in determining how chips can be manufactured using a particular process. This blueprint for 18A-P is due to be released in early 2026. Only then will Apple engineers be able to create final designs for their intended processors.
Please note: this is a limited order. According to analyst Kuo, TSMC should notice practically nothing of Apple’s choice of Intel. Nevertheless, the potential deal is more than just a novelty. If Intel really does win the approval of a company of Apple’s caliber for its chip manufacturing, others are sure to follow. Think of Nvidia, which once hinted at a possible collaboration, and hyperscalers Google or Amazon for their cloud chips. Microsoft has already proven to be a customer for Intel 18A for its own Maia AI accelerator.
Intel urgently seeks external customers
Apple will, of course, continue to design its own M chips. For Intel, it is not the case that it can completely restore its reputation as a supplier to Apple. However, a limited initial deal is a good way to gradually take more orders away from TSMC or at least to be considered a logical alternative. The latest chip processes are so expensive and in such high demand that Apple is usually first in line to buy up all the capacity. If that does not provide enough capacity, Intel can step in to fill the gaps.
The potential Apple deal is therefore not decisive, but it is significant. Intel considered closing its chip factories, but preventing this was one of the reasons for the US to invest in the company. In any case, 2026 will be a turning point for Intel’s foundry activities, with the company only continuing to invest in advanced manufacturing if there are sufficient customer commitments.
Intel Foundry has been struggling with heavy losses for years. For example, the division reported an operating loss of $7 billion in 2023. The company has only 1 percent market share, while competitor TSMC has nearly 58 percent. To improve its position, Intel needs to attract external customers in addition to its own chip production. In other words, it is not enough to rely on itself. As a separate business unit, Intel the chip designer is ‘just’ a paying customer of Intel the chip manufacturer.
US government supports Intel
The US deal also includes a protection mechanism that makes the foundry branch future-proof. It involves a five-year warrant that allows the government to take another 5 percent (on top of the previous 10 percent) if Intel reduces its share in the foundry business to below 51 percent. This ties Intel’s hands at a time when analysts had called for the sale of the division.