ASML has achieved unprecedented financial success in 2024, recording sales of 28.3 billion euros and a net profit of 7.6 billion euros. The Dutch chip machine manufacturer is experiencing a significant boost from the growing demand for advanced AI-related chips, while simultaneously navigating complex export restrictions.
In his annual report, CEO Christophe Fouquet emphasized the significant impact of artificial intelligence on the semiconductor industry. He projected robust global sales growth of nine percent annually over the next five years, with the market potentially reaching a remarkable $1 trillion valuation by the end of that period.
Market shifts and challenges
Emerging market dynamics could potentially introduce unexpected variables to the company’s sales trajectory. For instance, the rise of cost-effective AI solutions, such as those developed by Chinese company DeepSeek, might potentially reduce demand for high-end chips. This could directly influence sales of ASML’s sophisticated machinery. However, Fouquet suggested earlier that the chips hold substantially more strategic value for AI-implementing companies than for their developers, and he remains optimistic about the overall market impact.
However, geopolitical tensions did lead to tighter export restrictions. That, in turn, affected the orders ASML received. While 36 percent of the company’s sales originated from China in 2024, this proportion is anticipated to contract to 20 percent in 2025.
Tip: Netherlands further tightens export restrictions on chip equipment
The manufacturer already characterized 2024 as a “transition year” from the onset of the fiscal year. The previous CEO, Peter Wennink, articulated this mention. The change at the top was part of this statement, but declining sales from China also added to the changes. It was well estimated that tighter export restrictions would affect 15 percent of sales to China. Earlier, Chinese customers represented 49 percent of all ASML orders. This has now been reduced to 36 percent. The downward trend is expected to continue in the upcoming year.
Outlook and strategic adjustments
Notwithstanding these challenges, ASML maintains robust revenue expectations for 2025, forecasting earnings between 30 and 35 billion euros. This optimistic projection is anchored in the sustained robust demand for EUV lithography systems critical to AI applications.
The company remains committed to substantial investments in research and development, strategically positioning itself to adapt to evolving market dynamics and preserve its industry-leading status.