Following in Gartner’s footsteps, Forrester is sounding the alarm about Europe’s sovereignty ambitions. Under current plans, the chip industry will not become self-sufficient, whereas the United States and China have already achieved this, according to Forrester. Public clouds and software from the U.S. keep Europe digitally dependent.
In its first Global Sovereignty Forecast, Forrester ranks countries using a Tech Sovereignty Index, with scores for AI investments, cloud infrastructure, chips, software, data center capacity, and technical talent. China and the U.S. are far ahead, with total scores of 82 and 79 percent, respectively.
European countries lag far behind. We shouldn’t expect much improvement between now and 2030 either. Germany and Spain will rise from 34 to 36 percent, France from 33 to 35 percent, the UK from 30 to 32 percent, and Italy from 27 to 29 percent. These are not leaps that inspire much optimism.
More fabs, no independence
Semiconductors are, however, driving progress. Governments are pouring substantial funds into domestic production, and Forrester expects chip manufacturing scores to rise significantly in several countries. But these fabs will not reduce dependence on foreign players. Europe still designs only about 1 percent of the world’s chips and has no major chip designer of its own.
The European Chips Act does nothing to close that gap either. Brussels aims to account for one-fifth of global production by 2030, but Forrester projects 11.3 percent. The European Court of Auditors previously concluded that the Commission itself is projecting 11.7 percent and calls the target “highly unlikely.”
Sovereign cloud isn’t convincing
Physical hardware is one thing, but the software that runs on it and the ecosystems organizations rely on remain of non-European origin, with no realistic alternative in sight. AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud together control approximately 65 percent of the European cloud market. Forrester takes a negative view of the hyperscalers’ claims of sovereignty: while the data centers are located in Europe, ownership remains non-European. We previously reported that the AWS European Sovereign Cloud allows for technical access from the U.S., though this is unlikely, and Microsoft had to acknowledge a year ago that its own sovereign solution could not guarantee data sovereignty for Europe.
Forrester’s conclusion aligns with that of Gartner some time ago. The firm states that only the U.S. and China can currently operate a truly sovereign cloud. Forrester advises countries to abandon the goal of complete self-sufficiency and instead manage dependence through alliances, open technologies, and targeted investments.
Nevertheless, European players also remain committed to solutions that address the drive for sovereignty, no matter how difficult it may seem to achieve. For example, in April, seven Dutch cloud providers joined forces to create a sovereign alternative to U.S. players. We can expect such solutions to appear on the market more frequently, but a positive assessment of their competitive position from firms like Forrester and Gartner is still a long way off.